"Numbers today represent reality as of 3 weeks ago."

I'm passing along, with permission, something Freeman Hunt posted on Facebook.

A friend thought I should post something my husband wrote in a message. Here 'tis.

"Today Italy had 4207 new cases and 475 new deaths in 24 hours (and they are even admitting they can't count all deaths now).

"They went into lockdown 9 days ago when they had 1797 new cases and 97 deaths in a day.

"Even my friends who have been following this asked if this means the lockdown is not working. No, it is working, but the lag time on this disease is long. It can be 14 day incubation and then is about 10 days after symptoms start before people typically take a turn for the worse if they are going to. Death typically in the third week after symptom start.

"So it can be 5 weeks or even more between the time someone is infected and when they die. Can be over 3 weeks between infection and when they have to go to the hospital.

"Numbers today represent reality as of 3 weeks ago.

"If you wait till it gets as bad as Italy to lockdown it is too late. Your health system is overwhelmed. Some hospitals in America are already getting that way now. One in New Jersey has already converted an entire floor to COVID. Multiple hospitals already running out of equipment. Many health workers starting to get sick.

"This is what is going on in some places in Amercia NOW, and will be everywhere soon unless we get very serious very quickly.

"Even if we lockdown now the disease will get about 8 times worse before it turns the corner after 3 weeks or so of quarantine. Every day we wait is a 40% increase in the eventual numbers."