"The 'blue wall' is reforming in the Rust Belt."

Writes Lara M. Brown, the director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University, in The Hill.

In 2016, President Trump broke through Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall.” He won three states that Democrats had carried since the 1980s: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin....

[N]ow, less than four years later, all three of those states have shifted again and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading Trump....

According to Pew Research Center’s analysis of the exit polls, [Hillary Clinton] earned only 37 percent of the white Catholic vote.... As poorly as Clinton did, the largest percentage point decrease for a Democratic candidate occurred between 2008 and 2012, which suggests that white Catholics had “soured” on Obama’s presidency before Trump declared for the presidency. Clinton should have seen this coming...

While it remains unlikely that Biden, a Catholic, will be able to pull a majority of white Catholics towards the Democratic Party in November, were he to garner 45 percent of their votes, it seems likely that Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will again be colored blue....

The wall that Trump may have erected by November is not along the country’s southern border, but a blue one across the Rust Belt.

First, "were he to garner 45 percent of their votes" — I just have to note the use of that word, "garner."

Second, I've said it before, and sometimes I think I'm the only one who feels this way, but "Rust Belt" is an offensive term. On November 9, 2016, I wrote:

Suddenly, the place where I live isn't called the "Blue Wall" or the "Fire Wall" anymore. It's: "Rust Belt."

When we ceased to operate to generate power for the Democratic Party, it was back to the old insult.

If you call us the "Rust Belt," you are saying our time has passed, that we once prospered because there was manufacturing, but it's gone and it's not coming back. That's not what Donald Trump said to us when he campaigned through the Midwest in 2016. Where is the optimism?

"Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college."

Says The Economist — which views Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida as likely wins for Biden.

"Sleepy Joe Biden and the Radical Left Democrats want to 'DEFUND THE POLICE'"? Well... they probably won't quickly deny it.

Sleepy Joe Biden and the Radical Left Democrats want to “DEFUND THE POLICE”. I want great and well paid LAW ENFORCEMENT. I want LAW & ORDER!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 7, 2020

"Back in late 2017, it looked like Franken was going to weather the charges of inappropriate conduct against him, until Democrats apparently decided to sacrifice him..."

"... presumably in part to demonstrate that they could police their own.... The coup was quick and brutal. First, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand posted on Facebook a call for him to resign. Then, in quick succession, 13 more Democratic women senators (and a majority of the entire caucus) joined her. Whether Franken was guilty or innocent -- and he'd asked for a hearing -- his position became untenable. The day after Gillibrand’s shiv, he announced his intention to resign. (Chuck Schumer had told him to be out by 5 P.M.) If it looked like an orchestrated takeout, that's because it probably was. Biden -- even if innocent -- is now in a position where he must constantly worry about getting Frankened. By whom? Well, by the same sorts of powerful Democrats who helped him win the nomination (perhaps by helping orchestrate the well-timed withdrawals of Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg).... I'm also not saying 'they' want to replace Biden now.... But they could change their mind, and quickly, if he gives enough of them enough reason -- either by faltering, or pissing them off, or a combination of the two.... Biden probably wasn’t about to forge bold new directions.... But now Biden’s really in no position to step on anyone’s toes. Power has shifted away from the candidate."

From "The Frankening" by Mickey Kaus.

That could be read to say that Biden's position is stronger than ever. The Party wanted Biden because he would do what they want, and now there's even more reason for them to believe he will. He's boxed in.

"Despite the growing uproar from many of his progressive supporters over the sexual assault allegation leveled against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden..."

"... Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has remained quiet on the matter in recent days. The only time Sanders mentioned the allegation against Biden was earlier this month during an interview with CBS, in which the Vermont lawmaker asserted that 'any woman who feels that she was assaulted has every right in the world to stand up and make her claims.' But Sanders added... 'I think that she has the right to make her claims and get a public hearing and the public will make their own conclusions about it... I just don't know enough about it to comment further".... Sanders, who just days before that interview endorsed Biden’s White House bid upon dropping out of the race, has not publicly commented on the matter since. Fox News has reached out on multiple occasions to Sanders campaign officials and political aides, and has yet to receive a response."

From "Sanders keeps quiet on Biden sexual assault allegation despite uproar from supporters, ex-aides" (Fox News).

Also in the news this morning: "Biden reaches deal to let Sanders keep hundreds of delegates" (AP).

Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has agreed to let former primary rival Bernie Sanders keep hundreds of delegates he would otherwise forfeit by dropping out of the presidential race in a deal designed to avoid the bitter feelings that marred the party in 2016 and helped lead to Hillary Clinton’s defeat. Under party rules, Sanders should lose about one-third of the delegates he’s won in primaries and caucuses as the process moves ahead... The rules say those delegates should be Biden supporters, as he is the only candidate still actively seeking the party’s nomination....

In some ways, the delegate count is a moot point....

Is it a moot point? At any moment, Joe Biden could have a genuine or faked health crisis and become unavailable. Isn't that what plenty of Democrats want? If that happens, who gets to be the nominee? Maybe some people think it should be whoever Biden picks as his VP, even if that is a person who hasn't participated in any of the primaries and caucuses, who never had to debate. But there's good reason to think that if Biden becomes unavailable, the candidate should be the person who clearly came in second — in 2020 and in 2016 — Bernie Sanders.

Sanders is keeping himself clean on the Tara Reade allegations, and he's continuing to acquire delegates. Is he not thinking of somehow getting the nomination? I assume there are other Democrats who are looking for a path to the nomination and not conceding that Joe Biden owns it. So it's right for Sanders to plot a win.

"The best and surest way to beat Trump is to... give all the disaffected Republicans, conservatives and independents only one alternative to Trump."

"Giving them a conservative alternative might be ideologically satisfying, but it increases the likelihood that Trump can pull off another narrow win In the past several months, I’ve been approached about running as a conservative independent in the general election. I’ve had people suggest that I run as a Libertarian. My answer has always been the same: No. Because I won’t do anything that might help Trump win.... I know how committed Justin is to the founding ideals of liberty and limited government. When this is over, I’ll gladly join him in fighting for those principles again. If he wants, I’ll join him in starting a new political party. Right now, our only job is ridding the White House of an authoritarian con man. The last thing we need is a third-party candidate. Not this year, congressman."

From "You can’t win, Justin Amash. You can only help Trump get reelected/We both came in with the tea party wave. Reelecting this president isn’t the way to go out," by Joe Walsh (WaPo). This Joe Walsh is a former member of Congress and the author of a book called "F*ck Silence: Calling Trump Out for the Cultish, Moronic, Authoritarian Con Man He Is." He's not the Joe Walsh doing the guitar solo in "Hotel California" (the best guitar solo of all time according to a 1998 poll of readers of Guitarist magazine).

"The last thing we need is a third-party candidate. Not this year...." You could say that... or you could say the opposite. This is THE year for a 3rd-party candidate. This is the ONE time the 3rd-party candidate can actually win. Biden is a terrible candidate — way too old and seemingly mentally debilitated and burdened with a late-breaking sex-assault allegation. And Trump is very divisive and very, very weird.

And why would Amash necessarily hurt Biden? Why wouldn't he hurt Trump, which would help Biden?

From the comments over there: "Don't believe a word of this article. Amash won't draw anything among Democrat voters. He's a hard right conservative. Walsh was recruited to write this by the GOP for the same reason the Mafia sends your best friend to kill you."

Did Biden clinch the nomination yesterday? I don't know, and I don't really care.

He has the nomination, and following the primaries feels pointless now. Everyone seems to be backing away from the idiotic political conflict that had become a national way of life. It's time for Bernie Sanders (and Tulsi Gabbard) to end their candidacy and embrace Joe Biden as their party's nominee. It is also the case that Donald Trump is the GOP nominee.

Let's acknowledge what we already know, call off the conventions, and wait until after Labor Day to resume political campaigning. Labor Day is, traditionally, the beginning of the presidential campaign, and it would be a gesture toward sanity and reality to reinstitute that tradition.

Until then, we ought to all work together. Those who hold positions of power within government ought to demonstrate what it means to do the work of government, not politics. Democratic governors and legislators are cooperating with the Trump administration, and we ought to respect and encourage that — and reject efforts to make this the continuing political struggle over who will have power when January 2021 rolls around.

We have the leaders we have this year, and concentrating on changes so far in the future is tasteless and counterproductive.

"The Biden 2020 campaign isn’t about following its nominal leader, or even listening to him; it’s about the party pushing him over the line collectively..."

"... and about making plans to give him the necessary support once he’s in office, as Booker’s endorsing statement alluded to in references to 'winning races up and down the ballot' and thinking of a presidential victory as the 'floor' rather than the 'ceiling' of Democratic Party potential. Biden’s sudden viability coincided with popular Democratic Montana Gov. Steve Bullock’s announcement that, after fending off months of entreaties to enter his state’s Senate race, he will go ahead and attempt to flip the seat, while Arizona and Maine flip-aspirants Mark Kelly and Sara Gideon have also expressed a preference for running down ballot of Biden rather than Sanders. Progressives eulogizing Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign have emphasized the prominent role that she can still play, going forward, in the Senate...."

From "Joe Biden Has Cured Democrats of Their Belief in a Savior President/Joe does NOT have this without everyone else’s help" (Slate).

"What should Biden do now? (To me, it's obvious!)"

"I think he should get out now, not skew the voting any longer. He's not going to make it, and he doesn't deserve to make it. He's been the Jeb of the 2020 Democratic race, standing in the way of others but unable to succeed himself. He should bow out now, which will look gracious. It won't look gracious later, after 2 or more weeks of clinging to lost hope. He can endorse Pete or Amy and give one of them a boost now, when it will really count. But then, if what he secretly wants is to help Bloomberg, he should just cling to his horrible campaign and keep telling us it's all about South Carolina...."

I wrote on February 12th — less than a month ago — reacting to "The spectacular collapse of Joe Biden as Democratic frontrunner," a NY Post headline after Biden came in 5th in New Hampshire.



What an incredibly strange turnaround! Was it because he was in fact right that "it's all about South Carolina"? Was it that Bloomberg's strategy was so disruptive and distracting that it let Bernie Sanders slip to the front and that caused a panic and a stampede toward Biden?

My words from February 12th are not that ridiculous: "He's not going to make it, and he doesn't deserve to make it... He's... standing in the way of others but unable to succeed himself." That's still true as it relates to the general election. And "He's the Jeb" in the sense that Jeb would — in all likelihood — have gone on to lose to Hillary Clinton (and I think Biden will lose to Trump).

It bothers me — I won't say "amazes me" — that we Americans put so much time and effort into selecting major-party candidates for President and we end up with such a wearisomely inadequate, bland old politician, the very person who would have been selected if, without all this fuss, the party had just given the nod to the next person in line. It's so dispiriting that it's come to this!

ADDED: "You got a choice between Sleepy Joe and Crazy Bernie," said Trump, in early May of last year, prompting me to say: "There are a lot of Democratic candidates but they're all pathetic. It's the choice of no choice — 'a choice between Sleepy Joe and Crazy Bernie.'"

And here is Trump last April:

Welcome to the race Sleepy Joe. I only hope you have the intelligence, long in doubt, to wage a successful primary campaign. It will be nasty - you will be dealing with people who truly have some very sick & demented ideas. But if you make it, I will see you at the Starting Gate!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 25, 2019